Will RBI’s CRR hike to 99% hit HDFC, SBI and other bank stocks? Here’s what Jefferies says
Jefferies rate stocks including HDFC Bank, State Bank of India and Bandhan Bank.
· Economic Times Markets, ET Stocks
The RBI has raised the minimum daily CRR maintenance requirement to 99% from 90% from October 16 to curb banking system liquidity. Jefferies expects a limited impact on banks’ net interest margins, estimating a potential 1-2 basis point increase in funding costs. It prefers banks over NBFCs in a rising-rate environment and sees up to 47% upside in Bandhan Bank.
Key facts
- Dates in focus
- October 16
The analysis
Where the names start from: State Bank of India (SBI) is 22% below its 52-week high, -6.2% over three months; Bandhan Bank is 29% below its 52-week high, -10.7% over three months; HDFC Bank is 31% below its 52-week high, -8.1% over three months. A rating is set against the price on the day the note is written, so how far a stock has already run is the part of the case the headline upside leaves out.
This is a Rate / liquidity policy event. Rate direction moves bank margins and the discount rate applied to every long-duration asset. The commentary usually matters more than the decision, which is often already priced. On the day the stock is +1.4%, so a modest reaction.
Why it matters
- Rate decisions ripple straight into banks, NBFCs and every rate-sensitive sector — from real estate to autos.
- Earnings versus expectations is what actually re-rates a stock; the surprise matters more than the absolute number.
- With RBI involved, this carries a regulatory dimension that can outlast the immediate market reaction.
Market context
- Brokerage calls from Jefferies, with ratings on the stocks named. The stocks: HDFC Bank, State Bank of India (SBI) and Bandhan Bank.
- The “up to 47% upside” is the brokerages’ own estimate: the gap between the share price when the note was written and their target price, usually set a year out. It is a forecast by the brokerage, not a move that has happened.
- On the day, 1 of 3 are higher: HDFC Bank leads at +1.4% and Bandhan Bank trails at -4.6%.
- Over three months: HDFC Bank -8.1% against Banks -6.0% (2.1 points behind); State Bank of India (SBI) -6.2% against Banks -6.0% (0.2 points behind); Bandhan Bank -10.7% against Banks -6.0% (4.7 points behind).
- At least 25% below the 52-week high: HDFC Bank (31%) and Bandhan Bank (29%).
| Company | Price | Day | 1M | 3M | From 52-wk high | Volume vs 20-day | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDFC BankHDFCBANK · Banks | ₹692.80 | +1.4% | -2.2% | -8.1% | -31.4% | 0.7× | — |
| State Bank of India (SBI)SBIN · Banks | ₹961.85 | -1.0% | +0.2% | -6.2% | -21.7% | 0.9× | — |
| Bandhan BankBANDHANBNK · Banks | ₹154.33 | -4.6% | -13.4% | -10.7% | -28.8% | 0.6× | — |
Banks
1M -3.4% · 3M -6.0%
HDFC Bank, State Bank of India (SBI), Bandhan Bank
Prices as of 30 Oct 2026, 16:11 IST. Sector moves are the average of the stocks we track in each sector.
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